This is no longer a growth-at-any-cost cycle - it's one defined by clearer lines of performance and risk. Prime rents in Dubai’s Tier 1 malls are holding at AED 1,000–1,100 per sqft, with occupancy at 95% and above - but that’s not the full story. Retailers are getting sharper, particularly in second-tier locations where lease structures are now more flexible, turnover-linked, and shorter in term.
New launches are becoming more purposeful. Projects like J1 Beach and Nad Al Sheba Mall are not chasing volume - they’re designed for experience, adjacency, and differentiation. Dubai Harbour’s anchor development and retail strip are still in pre-opening phase, but the intent is clear: anchoring retail within lifestyle-led, waterfront, or residential ecosystems is no longer experimental; it’s a requirement.
Tourism remains a vital demand driver. Official sources state that Chinese visitors surged by nearly a third year on year in 2024, and malls with curated F&B, concierge services, and connectivity to cruise terminals are seeing leasing interest reflect that. Dubai Harbour’s future potential is tied directly to its alignment with marine tourism and premium hospitality offerings.
In Abu Dhabi, retail growth is being shaped by format and location. We’re seeing smaller-format, locally led, food-first retail concepts gain traction - particularly near dense residential corridors and cultural districts. Yas Mall continues to lean into immersive leisure and experiential dining, while independent operators are reshaping select high street environments.
From a landlord perspective, the message is clear: future leasing value is being built on adaptability and operational fit, not legacy footfall alone. And for investors, it's increasingly about alignment with the next generation of demand. That includes fintech integration – Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) platforms like Tabby and Postpay are actively shaping leasing strategies - and rethinking what counts as a “retail tenant.”
There is no broad pullback underway. But there is a quiet reallocation. Mid-2025 finds UAE retail at a point of commercial clarity: the best assets are leased, the best formats are evolving, and the rest are being tested.
Click to read the latest Cushman & Wakefield Global Cities Retail guide – Europe - to find out more about markets around the region.
