RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY: SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT HANDOVERS; HOWEVER, NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT YET
Approximately 42,000 units are expected in the remainder of 2026, subject to supply chain constraints and market conditions, with a larger pipeline scheduled through 2030. While current delivery momentum remains intact, any prolonged regional conflict could lead to more measured contractor mobilisation, launch pacing, or handover delays later in the year. Notable launches in Q1 2026 are Mercedes Benz Places in Meydan City, Jaddaf Beach Oasis in Al Jaddaf, Sobha Sanctuary off Al Ain road. Delivery concentration across select locations such as JVC/JVT, Dubai South, MBR City, Business Bay and Dubailand may create localised pressure rather than a city-wide oversupply scenario.
SALES PRICES: GROWTH CONTINUES AS BUYERS TURN SELECTIVE
Residential sales prices continue to rise, up 9% YoY in Q1 2026, albeit at a more moderate pace than the 2024–2025 peak. QoQ prices remain flat, pointing to a maturing cycle, with any early conflict-related impacts yet to reflect in pricing, despite a slowdown in enquiries and transaction volumes. Palm Jumeirah continues to lead pricing across both apartments and villas, with Downtown Dubai, Dubai Hills, Emirates Hills, and Jumeirah Islands among the strongest-performing submarkets. The current regional conflict has introduced some caution, with a wait-and-watch approach from certain investors. However, realistically priced assets and projects by established developers continue to see demand, particularly from end-users and long-term investors.
RENTS: GROWTH EASES AS OPTIONS EXPAND
The rental market remains positive, with average rents up 4% YoY in Q1 2026, while QoQ levels are largely unchanged, indicating a moderation in growth. Renewals continue to hold at existing levels, but new leases, particularly in March, have started to reflect early signs of softening amid conflict-driven uncertainty. In the near term, rental demand is expected to ease, with additional supply and some Airbnb stock shifting to long-term leases likely to create localised softness in select districts. Prime villa communities continue to outperform, while apartment-led areas are seeing flatter rental movements and more measured growth.
